Bitcoin recently rose 3.8%, hitting resistance at $68,700, raising questions about crossing the $70,000 mark. Four factors are constraining price movement: global economic uncertainty, mining sell pressure, the influence of U.S. elections, and significant BTC reserves on exchanges. Investors are cautious due to a lack of compelling signals from the market and robust returns from traditional assets yielding 4.7%. The upcoming presidential election further complicates sentiment, with differing regulatory stances potentially affecting Bitcoin's future. Moreover, Bitcoin miners face profitability challenges, as the hashrate index has dropped and many miners hold over 1.8 million BTC, possibly leading to increased selling pressure. Additionally, concerns about high Bitcoin deposits on exchanges persist, with estimates of holdings ranging from 1.9 million to 3 million BTC. Predictions of a 'supply shock' from spot Bitcoin ETFs must consider this elevated exchange activity, where further selling could occur as ETF investors take profits, suggesting that confident traders may need a combination of improved mining conditions and reduced rates before pushing Bitcoin past the $70,000 threshold.

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