Kalshi, a regulated exchange offering event contracts on U.S. elections, faces criticism from the activist group Better Markets, which is urging the U.S. Court of Appeals to shut down its election markets. Citing concerns over recent betting activities on rival platform Polymarket, Better Markets alleges manipulation by major investors or 'whales' betting large sums on Donald Trump potentially misleading the election outcome and harming smaller retail investors. The group's 39-page court document emphasizes that the current trading practices could distort market pricing, detached from electoral realities. Despite these claims, industry experts, including Filip Pidot from the Coalition for Political Forecasting, argue that the primary motivation behind the large trades is profit rather than market manipulation. As Kalshi resumed trading on political contracts following a court ruling, the probability of Trump winning was noted at 62.5% on Polymarket and 59% on Kalshi, reflecting ongoing interest and volume in political betting across platforms. The debate continues over the implications of these markets for electoral integrity and investor protection.

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