Ethereum's ether (ETH) has underperformed significantly in 2024, rising only 36% this year compared to Bitcoin's (BTC) 109% surge. Currently priced at $3,100, ETH remains far below its 2021 peak of $4,832, while BTC recently attained all-time highs above $90,000. A recent analysis by Amberdata reveals that there is only a 10% probability of ETH prices reaching the first quarter high of around $4,000 by the end of December. This lack of investor interest is attributed to weak fundamentals, particularly as most decentralized finance (DeFi) transactions are being executed on Layer 2 (L2) solutions rather than on Ethereum's Layer 1 (L1) network. Amberdata's Director of Derivatives, Greg Magadini, noted that the shift to inflationary supply contrasts the initial value proposition that supported ETH's price. Moreover, regulatory expectations under a potential Trump presidency have yet to galvanize enthusiasm for ETH, despite benefiting other DeFi tokens. Nonetheless, an uptrend in BTC could potentially lift ETH above the $4,000 mark, albeit with continued underperformance relative to Bitcoin.

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