The decentralized betting market platform Polymarket has garnered attention for its accuracy in predicting the US presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Experts argue that prediction markets are vital for improving humanity's ability to make informed predictions about global events, leveraging the concept of 'information finance' or 'Info Fi.' Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin suggests that AI will enhance info finance, enabling efficient data collection even in low-volume markets. The past success of betting markets, seen in the Iowa Electronic Market during the 1988 election, is attributed to the wisdom of crowds and the efficient market hypothesis, allowing larger groups to make better predictions. Nimrod Cohen of eOracle emphasizes prediction markets' dual function as a high-speed reporting mechanism, merging extensive coverage with quick response times. However, resolving disputes—like defining outcomes of bets—remains a challenge. Developing robust systems for resolution is crucial for the future reliability of prediction markets.

Source 🔗