The Lindy Effect, which posits that the longevity of non-perishable goods predicts their future durability, is notably relevant in the DeFi space, where trust and brand reputation often overshadow the technological merit of the protocols. Immutable protocols, like Uniswap v1 and v2, become more trusted over time as they operate without significant vulnerabilities. However, upgradeable protocols such as Aave and Compound challenge this principle since each update alters the code, effectively resetting their risk profile. Users frequently overlook this and may misjudge the security of these protocols, leading to cognitive biases. Brand reputation plays a critical role, with protocols accumulating trust not only through technical stability but also through the expertise of their development teams and security practices. As such, while the Lindy Effect applies more consistently to immutable protocols, users must critically assess both technical updates and brand reputation to make informed decisions in the DeFi landscape. The Lindy Effect serves as a heuristic, but it can mask risks associated with upgradeable infrastructures. Thus, understanding these nuances is essential for users to accurately gauge where to place their trust in DeFi.

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