Polymarket's current US election odds show former President Trump favored to win all six US swing states. The platform claims to have identified the trader, an unnamed French citizen, responsible for $28 million in pro-Trump positions, linked to accounts such as Fredi9999 and Theo4. Company representatives indicated that the trader spread his bets across smaller positions, avoiding market manipulation. Despite the significant pro-Trump sentiment, Polymarket maintains that its odds align with those of other prediction markets. In October, Polymarket saw heavy skewing towards Trump, which led to an investigation, yet data from the American-only platform Kalshi supported similar findings, showing Trump leading against Vice President Harris. Initially, Harris had a substantial lead in August, but it dissipated as the race progressed, leading to a tight contest. Critics argue that prediction markets lack the accuracy of polls, while supporters contend they better reflect true market sentiment due to financial stakes involved.

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