The 2024 U.S. election results validated prediction betting markets such as Polymarket, with founder Shayne Coplan taking a victory lap alongside Donald Trump and the GOP. While mainstream media and traditional pollsters were caught off guard by the Republican Party's strong performance, those following prediction markets had a clearer forecast. Koleman Strumpf, an economics professor, asserted that these markets outperformed traditional forecasts. Polymarket showed Trump with a 98.8% chance of winning as the election results unfolded. Despite initial polls favoring Democrats, by early Wednesday morning, even the New York Times gave Trump a high probability of re-election. Haseeb Qureshi noted that prediction markets add valuable insights that enhance traditional polling data. However, Aaron Brogan warned against overanalyzing the results, suggesting that the predicting accuracy of such markets needs further scrutiny, especially given the slim margins in traditional polling. Overall, this election cycle reinforced the credibility of prediction markets in political forecasting.

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