As President Joe Biden's term approaches its end on January 20, 2025, he has the opportunity to issue pardons or commutations regarding federal crimes. Recent betting activity on Polymarket indicates that users believe Biden is more likely to pardon Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried, the former FTX CEO, than Ross Ulbricht, founder of Silk Road. Current odds show a 4% chance for Bankman-Fried and 2% chance for Ulbricht. Bankman-Fried is serving a 25-year sentence after being convicted of fraud, while Ulbricht is serving a life sentence without parole. With over $5 million bet on Bankman-Fried, the situation reflects the ongoing interest in high-profile pardons, especially since Biden previously commuted the sentences of individuals from home confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, Biden has not indicated any plans for further pardons and faces criticism over Bankman-Fried's actions that led to the FTX collapse. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, who may seek to issue his own pardons, has not suggested pardoning SBF, despite pressures from advisors to consider national figures like Edward Snowden.

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