The actions of a major Polymarket user, known as 'Fredi9999,' who has placed over $20 million in pro-Trump bets, have raised alarms about potential market manipulation. Trump's odds in the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election reached 60.2% on Oct. 16, despite a lack of substantial supporting evidence from real-world events. Alex Momot, founder of Peanut Trade, noted that Polymarket's trends are starting to influence public perception, strengthening concerns over its reliability as an information source. Pseudonymous bettor Domer suggested that Fredi may control multiple top accounts that excessively wager on Trump, further skewing odds by making significant deposits. The scenario raises issues associated with manipulation, especially as the election approaches and the integrity of prediction markets is scrutinized. While Trump’s odds have increased on Polymarket, they are also climbing on traditional betting platforms, though more gradually. Trump stands at 60.7% on Polymarket as of Oct. 18, while general odds reflect a slightly lower probability of victory.

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