As Donald Trump's recent electoral victory reverberates through markets, analysts are keen to discern the implications of his proposed economic policies, particularly his stance on tariffs. Dr. Stephen Miran, a former Treasury official, provides insights into how Trump's tariff approach might unfold. The discussion pivots around the concept of the 'Triffin dilemma,' illustrating the challenges the US faces as the issuer of the global reserve currency, which has led to an overvalued dollar and growing fiscal deficits. In light of these issues, Dr. Miran suggests that tariffs could serve as a mechanism to address trade imbalances, while also questioning the potential inflationary effects of such policies. Key considerations include understanding how tariffs might affect consumer prices and how currency adjustments could mitigate these impacts. The interview emphasizes the significance of the business cycle, suggesting it could influence the effectiveness of any tariff implementations. Lastly, the conversation touches upon potential currency agreements that might help stabilize the US economy amid these challenges.

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