Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has seen the vast majority of its users lose money, with 86% of accounts reflecting a negative profit and loss margin. The platform gained attention during the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, where users could bet on various outcomes, including Trump’s chances of re-election. While some whales made significant profits, with a few wallets realizing over $1,000 in gains, the data indicates that 88% of users have incurred losses. Most users typically wager between $100 and $500, but only a small fraction have succeeded. Analysts suggest that the 'smart money' is profiting from the 'dumb money' losses, highlighting a disparity in betting knowledge among participants. There is also concern about illegitimate users attempting to manipulate the market through volume farming tactics. The platform is currently under investigation by the National Gaming Authority due to suspicious betting activities linked to massive sums wagered on Trump winning a second term.

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