Where Prediction Markets Draw the Line on a Trump or Harris Election Win
As the 2024 presidential race reaches a crucial point, various prediction markets are setting the stage for determining the winner. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have emerged, allowing significant betting on the outcome of the election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Each platform operates under its own set of rules for resolving bets based on who will be called the winner by major news outlets, with Polymarket relying on a consensus from sources like the Associated Press and Fox News. If no agreement is reached by January 20, winners will be determined based on the inauguration. Kalshi's decision will be based solely on who is officially inaugurated, regardless of how the election is called. Robinhood's market will conclude after the certification of results by Congress. Amidst accusations of election fraud and claims of stolen elections from Trump, the final resolution may also lead to disputes as voters head to the polls on Election Day, heightening the stakes for traders in these markets.
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