Prediction marketplace Kalshi has launched over a dozen political event contracts following a September court victory against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). These financial derivatives allow traders to bet on various US political outcomes, including the upcoming presidential election, Senate races, and potential cabinet appointments. Kalshi's most popular market, concerning the presidential winner, has generated $14 million in betting volume since October 7. Despite Kalshi’s momentum, decentralized platform Polymarket has also seen significant betting activity, with nearly $2 billion placed on election-related bets. Kalshi's odds currently favor Republican nominee Donald Trump at 55% compared to Democratic contender Kamala Harris at 45%. In contrast, Polymarket's users are even more optimistic about Trump, giving him a 58% chance to win. Industry analysts suggest these markets may reflect public sentiment more accurately than traditional polls, despite CFTC concerns regarding election integrity.

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