As Bitcoin surges to a new record high, the cryptocurrency world is abuzz with speculation. With just five weeks until the next Bitcoin halving, questions arise about a potential pre-halving correction, reminiscent of past cycles. This comes as Bitcoin touched an unprecedented peak of around $73,700 on March 13, stirring debates on its future trajectory.
Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin could be on the verge of a price correction before the halving in April. This speculation is based on previous cycles, where Bitcoin underwent significant retracements. In 2020, the cryptocurrency saw a 20% correction before the halving, and in 2016, a 38% drop was recorded. An analyst known as Rekt Capital notes the likelihood of a retracement, possibly less severe than in past cycles, citing recent pullbacks in January (-18%) and early March (-14%).
Despite the historical precedent for pre-halving corrections, the current cycle exhibits unique characteristics. For the first time, Bitcoin has set a new all-time high before a halving event. Additionally, it hasn’t matched the explosive growth trajectories seen in previous cycles, which, according to Ecoinometrics, suggests potential for further gains.
Moreover, Bernstein’s recent client note forecasts a remarkable rise in Bitcoin’s price to $150,000 post-halving by mid-2025, buoyed by strong demand for Bitcoin ETFs. This optimistic outlook is further supported by substantial ETF inflows since January, surpassing expectations for the year 2025 within just 40 trading days of launch. Bernstein also highlights the current underperformance of Bitcoin miners as a potentially lucrative investment opportunity before the halving takes effect.
In contrast, ARK Invest’s long-term projection dramatically overshadows Bernstein’s forecast, envisioning Bitcoin exceeding $1 million. This stark disparity in predictions underscores the speculative nature of cryptocurrency investments and the high stakes surrounding the upcoming halving event.
As Bitcoin stands at the threshold of another pivotal moment, investors and enthusiasts alike are keenly watching for signs of its next big move. Whether the anticipated correction materializes or Bitcoin continues its ascent remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the cryptocurrency market is never short of surprises.